Wednesday, October 29, 2008

A Day of Shame

While all eyes were focused today on the Fed's rate cut, the big news was the Fed's latest cockamamie effort to save world.

Just when you thought the insanity couldn't get crazier, the Fed announced it's now going to funnel a massive $120 billion of U.S. funds into Brazil, South Korea, Singapore, and Mexico! We're circlingthe toliet bowl and we're sending money to other countries!

And that's on top of the IMF bailouts already committed to the Ukraine ($16.5 billion), Iceland ($2.1 billion), and Hungary ($25.5 billion)!

In response, some folks are cheering with glee, blindly believing that Mr. Bernanke can play Santa Claus, the Pied Piper and the Fairy Godmother all in one act. What idiots!!!

Anyone with any experience with the real world is quickly coming to the realization that Mr. Bernanke is Desperate — resorting to the radical measures of all time.

Playing his last cards — realizing that if these last-ditch rescues don't work, it's game over.

Taking huge risks — that his rescue-the-whole-world schemes will in the form of falling confidence in the U.S. government as a whole! Meanwhile, the much ballyhooed Fed rate cut was a dud!

After all the hope and prayer implied in yesterday's stock-market surge, today, the market literally saw a ghost: Just in the final 12 minutes of trading — from today's post-rate-cut high to the closing bell — the Dow nosedived by an alarming 372 points! And the fools on TV were tellingyou we had hit the bottom! What morons!!!

Not exactly a polite "thank you" note to Mr. Bernanke for his half-point rate cut! He sure does not get my "thank you"!

Bottom line: Some investors can be fooled some of the time. But the investors that move the market are painfully aware of one simple fact:

Mr. Bernanke cannot drop interest rates below zero!
He cannot force banks to lend money!
He can't compel consumers to borrow, or make people spend. Of course, ourso called "wise" leaders are doing plenty of it for us!
Nor can he turn back the clock to undo decades of financial sins ... or repeal the law of gravity and stop investors from selling.

Indeed, all of this week's wild events merely underscore that we are indeep, deep trouble and the Fed and that group of bandits and the politiciansare selling us out. I'm ashamed of my country, I really am!

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Time to Short Airlines as OPEC Cuts Crude Output

I’ve been watching in bewilderment at how much airline stocks such as UAUA, AMR, DAL, LCC, and RJET have have rallied without any real profit taking to set in yet. I shorted RJET a few times mostly for profits as I’m looking to catch this on the down side once people start taking there profits. And it's not a matter of if this will happen, it's when. With every huge sector rally, there's always a point when it peaks and retraces a significant amount before it continues going up, levels, or continues to fall.

OPEC scheduled an emergency meeting for Friday, October 24th, and is expected to cut crude oil output by an unknown amount. Demand for oil has been on the decline which has led to oil dropping around 55% from its peak near 150. Falling oil prices has meant increased profits for airlines, which is why the airline sector has been skyrocketing. Yet with rumors of the OPEC cut, hugely overbought conditions, and airline stocks losing momentum, this seems like it could be the beginning of a good time to catch airline stocks on a downside move, at least in the short term.

I’ve been trying to go short in several of them, yet shares have been hard to borrow. I managed to borrow some shares of RJET at 12.43 on Wednesday and alerted Black Service Members to go short. UAUA was also another very appealing airline stock and fell as far as 20% Thursday during the session, yet I wasn’t able to get any shares to short.

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Thursday, October 23, 2008


For the second-straight day, stocks plunged Wednesday as concerns about a worldwide recession and futures earnings from some of the global giants made headlines.

The fear of recession spread from stocks to other markets, as hard assets like gold and other commodities sold off. Energy, financial and materials led the decline and all 10 economic sectors posted losses ranging from negative 10.4% (energy) to negative 3.8% (consumer staples).

The losses occurred despite impressive earnings gains by some of the great global names: Apple (AAPL), McDonald’s (MCD), Merck (MRK), and Phillip Morris International (PM) all beat estimates. But Apple was the only one that closed higher, at $96.57, up $5.08.

Yahoo (YHOO) reported earnings after the close on Tuesday, beating estimates by a penny and announcing a 10% cut in its workforce. Yesterday, YHOO rose 32 cents to $12.39.

But the losses Wednesday weren’t primarily due to past earnings but to future earnings, as the overwhelming majority of companies have said that Q4 2008 and at least the first half of 2009 look much slower.

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Monday, October 20, 2008

3 Billion Served

Trading volume can be used as an indicator of changes in the market. Volume can tell you if a trend is likely to continue... or if it has run its course.

During the week of October 6-10, we saw several things we had never seen before. For one thing, the volume on the New York Stock Exchange reached 11 billion shares in a single day. A new record. Plus, the Spyders - the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 - saw over 800 million shares trade in a single day, and the weekly volume for the Spyders reached an incredible three billion shares. Those were both records.

You might also note that the week of October 6-10 saw the worst drop in the history of the U.S. stock market. That huge drop, coupled with the record volume, could indicate a capitulation point for the market - when everyone gives up and sells their stock. The second week of October could have been just that, the surrender of the bulls.

I would not recommend diving headfirst back into the market. There are going to be numerous layers of resistance to cut through. This market is best played cautiously. Lower your allocations and keep some cash on the sidelines. If, indeed, this turns out to be a bottom and a new bull market starts from here, there will be plenty of time to get back in.

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Monday, October 6, 2008

China's economic juggernaut is faltering.

The latest sign of a slowdown came with the Oct. 2 release of September figures on the health of China's manufacturing sector.

The data, the CLSA China Manufacturers Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showed the steepest fall in volumes of new orders since the monthly survey began in June 2004; registering 47.7, it was well below the 50 boom/bust cutoff.

"This is a tsunami that starts in America, blowing across the globe and arriving at our doorstep," says Alex Fong, CEO of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce. "Manufacturers [whose operations are all in China] have to be prepared for the worst."

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Saturday, October 4, 2008

Falling Market Great for You?

Unless you follow the market closely every day, you should have two stock-investing modes - as a holder of stocks and as a purchaser of stocks.

And what about selling? Selling now is not a good idea. The market has lost about 25 percent of its value since it peaked last October. That's about the average loss during a recession. If we're not at the bottom, we're probably near it. The worst you can do is sell when stocks are cheap and buy when they're expensive. That sounds easy enough... until a series of economic crises cause the markets to fall. In other words, exactly what is happening today. Then investors begin to panic. And panic is followed by selling.

If you are invested in sound companies, they will bounce back. In the meantime, the market's decline has presented you with a wonderful opportunity. The market is on sale. It's going for 25 percent off.

As a certain Warren Buffett said (in 1997): "Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices."