When Will It Be Safe to Go Back in the Water?

By Rick Pendergraft

One question keeps coming up when I talk to my friends and family these days: "How will I know when it is safe to get back into the market?" There is one indicator that I am watching closely right now that I think will provide the answer: the mutual fund inflows and outflows.

Since late July, only one week has seen money flowing into equity mutual funds. All other weeks have seen outflows. The institutional money may be what everyone keeps an eye on, but individual investors control more money than most people think. Through retirement plans, more and more individuals have been invested in mutual funds, and right now these people are fleeing the market in droves.

My advice is to watch those mutual fund numbers. Once you see the outflows slow down, it will be safe to start buying stocks again. I wouldn't wait for the inflows to start ramping up, though. When it comes to timing the market, the herd is usually late to the party.

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